With retail inflation surprising on the upside, the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to increase the repo rate by 35-50 basis points (bps) in the review scheduled for September 28-30. According to economists, the central bank will continue to focus on bringing inflation down even though economic growth has remained sluggish. Data released by the government on Monday showed that the consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased by 7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in August, thus, staying above the upper tolerance limit of the central bank for all the eight months of 2022.
The government hopes of registering GDP growth rate ranging between 6.1-6.7 per cent in 2013-14.
The third-quarter financials didn't excite market watchers. But equity investors can still make money if they invest in the right stocks.
There is a significant amount of dispersion in the growth rates across different industries.
The rate of price rise in the vegetable segment almost doubled to 7.47 per cent as against 3.92 per cent in September.
The wholesale price-based inflation surged to more than a decade high of 14.23 per cent in November, mainly due to hardening of prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum and natural gas. WPI inflation has remained in double digits for eight consecutive months beginning April. Inflation in October this year was at 12.54 per cent, while in November 2020 it was at 2.29 per cent. "The high rate of inflation in November 2021, is primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum & natural gas, chemicals and chemical products, food products etc as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.
Manufacturing activities in India eased marginally in September but remained in good shape amid companies hiring more workers and cooling price pressures, according to a monthly survey released on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicated a strong improvement in the health of the Indian manufacturing industry, as companies stepped up production in tandem with a sustained increase in new work intakes. The PMI at 55.1 in September continued to be in expansion mode for the 15th consecutive month but was slightly lower than 56.2 recorded in August.
'It is far too early to celebrate the numbers.' 'They are still fairly weak compared to the pre-pandemic level.'
An additional factor spurring the FMP launches is MFs' desire to retain investors as many such offerings are set to mature over the next two months.
Industrial output had slowed to 5-month low of 2.1% in March.
New projects fell 6.3 per cent in the December quarter compared with the September quarter. The value of new projects in the just-concluded quarter was Rs 2.1 trillion, according to the data from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), which was lower than the Rs 2.2 trillion seen in the September quarter. It is, however, higher than Rs 1.5 trillion recorded for the quarter ended December 2020, the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic. This data ties in with the November data for core sector growth, an index of eight core industries, which grew at its slowest pace since early 2021.
TCS was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising over 3 per cent, followed by L&T, Bharti AIrtel, HCL Tech, Tata Steel, Bajaj Auto and Reliance Industries. NSE Nifty rallied 164.70 points to its fresh closing peak of 16,529.10.
The NSE index Nifty ended above the 10,500-mark.
The contraction in November this year is the second biggest fall in the current financial year.
Among the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors, Asian Paints, ITC, IndusInd Bank, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Wipro, Infosys and Maruti were the major gainers. Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan and Larsen & Toubro were the major laggards.
Business Standard tracks pollution levels, goods ferried by the Indian Railways and consumer visits to various categories of places, in addition to power generation and traffic numbers to understand the fast-changing situation on the ground.
The poor performance of capital goods - a bellwether for future growth - has alarmed most analysts
The Sensex had bounced back with gains of 94 points or 0.3%
Sentiment in the market will also be guided by other major market movers like trend in the rupee, Brent crude and foreign capital flows.
IndusInd Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, soaring over 7 per cent, followed by Bharti Airtel, HCL Tech, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra and Dr Reddy's.
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During April-February, the index of industrial production, a measure of factory activity, declined 0.1 per cent compared with a 0.9 per cent growth in the corresponding period of 2012-13.
These stocks offer the best combination of maximum 'buy' recommendations from brokerages and share price upside over the next 12 months.
Analysts say RBI will cut rates because the liquidity crunch that began this time last year is still hurting the economy and also with an eye on the August industrial production numbers, which showed a contraction by 1.1 per cent -- the steepest in seven long years.
India's manufacturing sector activities moderated in March with companies reporting softer expansions in new orders and production as inflation concerns dampened business confidence, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally-adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 54.0 in March, down from 54.9 in February, highlighting weakest rate of growth in terms of production and sales since September 2021. The March PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the ninth straight month.
Top gainers in the Sensex pack included Vedanta, ICICI Bank, ONGC, Kotak Bank, Axis Bank, SBI, M&M, Infosys, PowerGrid, HCL Tech, NTPC, Bajaj Finance and Reliance Industries, rising up to 2.72 per cent.
The change in the baseline for IIP and WPI, currently at 2004-05, is expected to bring in more accuracy in mapping the level of economic activity and calculating other numbers like national accounts.
The reopening of China has led to an ongoing readjustment of the global metals and commodities markets. China has a massive production capacity surplus to its own domestic demand. At the same time, it also has high domestic demand. China is also becoming carbon sensitive.
Benchmark indices settled lower on Friday, with the Sensex declining 111 points on the back of a sharp fall in index heavyweight Reliance Industries. The BSE benchmark went lower by 111.01 points or 0.21 per cent to settle at 52,907.93. During the day, it tanked 924.69 points or 1.74 per cent to 52,094.25. The NSE Nifty dipped 28.20 points or 0.18 per cent to close at 15,752.05.
The wholesale price-based inflation bucked the 4-month rising trend in December 2021, and eased to 13.56 per cent, mainly on account of softening in fuel, power and manufacturing items even though food prices hardened. WPI inflation has remained in double digits for the ninth consecutive month beginning April. Inflation in November was 14.23 per cent, while in December 2020 it was 1.95 per cent.
Expressing serious concern over contraction in industrial output in November, India Inc called for immediate policy interventions, including a rate cut by RBI, to prevent job losses and boost demand.
Morgan Stanley has increased the target prices of certain information technology (IT) stocks by as much as 29 per cent, anticipating an improvement in earnings in the near future. Within the IT and engineering research and development (ER&D) services sector, it is now more optimistic about growth and margin estimates for 2024-25 (FY25).
Zero inflation will pave way for rate cuts in the next RBI policy.
Indian equity markets have a limited upside potential in the near-term as they negotiate the ensuing cyclical slowdown, wrote analysts at Nomura in a recent coauthored report led by Saion Mukherjee, their managing director and head of equity research for India. He, however, believes that the foundations are in place for sustainable growth over the medium-to-long term, and hence suggests a 'buy on dips' strategy to equity investors. As an investment strategy, Nomura prefers domestic-oriented sectors and companies over exporters, and prefers stocks that provide valuation comfort. Industrials and banks are their overweight sectors, while IT services and consumer discretionary are their underweight sectors.
Mutual funds have ratcheted up Rs 53,700 crore (Rs 537 billion) through new fund offers (NFOs) in 2022 until November, against Rs 1 trillion in Calendar 2021, notwithstanding the number of launches this year eclipsing the 2021 tally. Industry insiders cite the absence of launches in popular categories as the reason behind lower collections this year. Typically, only NFOs in popular categories from major fund houses rake in the moolah.
'So, what does one believe -- just 6 stocks that are pushing the indices higher or the 600 scrips that are reflecting economic pain?'
Analysts remain selective on cement stocks amid the likely government's capex push ahead of the scheduled general elections in May 2024. While UBS has initiated coverage on the Indian cement sector with an anti-consensus negative view and suggests investors sell select cement stocks on a rally, those at Nomura remain selectively bullish on the sector and prefer companies with large brownfield optionality and multi-region presence. In the near-term, UBS expects strong earnings of cement companies in the next two quarters to be driven by robust demand and margin tailwinds, but suggests any sharp uptick in stock prices could offer a good opportunity for booking profits in the related counters.
Much of the Q3 data will simply not be available for the CSO to factor in its calculation.
Manufacturing activities in India remained robust and price pressures were contained in October as new orders and production rose at a slower but stronger pace, according to a monthly survey released on Tuesday. The seasonally-adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was up from 55.1 in September to 55.3 in October. The October PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 16th straight month.
In case of onions, inflation skyrocketed to 127.04 per cent, while for the eggs, meat and fish segment the rate of price rise was 5.76 per cent.
Exports rise for 8th month, albeit at lower pace
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